Eugene Investment & Securities has trimmed its target price for JYP Entertainment (KOSPI: 035900) by 11.4%, from ₩88,000 to ₩78,000, while maintaining a "Buy" recommendation.
The brokerage forecasts second-quarter revenue of ₩190.2bn, down 11.9% year on year, and operating profit of ₩38.5bn, a 27.3% decline — both figures coming in below market consensus.
The principal culprit is disappointing album sales, which have pushed up unit costs. Although a string of artists — including ITZY, NMIXX, Kepler, NEXZ, and Xdinary Heroes — made comebacks during the quarter, per-artist album volumes remained modest.
The live-entertainment segment, by contrast, is expected to hold up well, supported by TWICE's ongoing world tour and dome tours in Japan by NiziU and 2PM.
The third quarter looks more promising. The return of Stray Kids, one of the agency's biggest acts, along with the launch of a large-scale world tour — potentially including stadium-sized venues in North America — is expected to drive both revenue growth and margin improvement.
For the full year, Eugene projects revenue of ₩872.0bn, up 6.1%, and operating profit of ₩172.0bn, up 10.9%.
The brokerage flags two key risks: TWICE is approaching its contract renewal window, and members of Stray Kids face mandatory South Korean military service obligations on the horizon. The report also cautions that younger acts such as NMIXX and Kepler still need to demonstrate tangible fandom growth — "translating fan bases into numbers" — to justify confidence in the group's longer-term pipeline.
JYP Entertainment's shares closed at ₩47,750 on 14th July.