Daishin Securities reaffirmed its "Buy" rating and six-month target price of ₩110,000 on SK Telecom (KOSPI: 017670) on the 7th, citing the telecoms giant's increasingly concrete "two-track" strategy: channelling its existing data centre (DC) business into a new entity called SK Horizon, while housing next-generation AI data centre (AIDC) operations under a separate vehicle, SK Hyper.

Valuation methodology and upside scenarios

The target price is derived by applying a price-to-earnings multiple of 13 times to Daishin's 2026 earnings-per-share estimate of ₩7,418, then adding ₩3.6 trillion to reflect SK Telecom's pre-IPO stake in the American AI company Anthropic (approximately 0.25%, based on the Series H funding round). Against the current share price of ₩92,500 (as of 4th September), the target implies upside of roughly 19%.

Daishin goes further, suggesting that if Anthropic achieves a market capitalisation of around $2 trillion following a public listing, the value of SK Telecom's stake could swell to ₩7.5 trillion—pushing a revised target price to ₩130,000.

The 13-times earnings multiple represents a 30% premium to the five-year average of 10 times for Korean telecoms peers KT and LG Uplus. This premium reflects the view that SK Telecom deserves to be re-rated as an AIDC operator rather than a conventional carrier. That re-rating, however, is contingent on demonstrating clear and credible revenue from its AI data centre business.

SK Horizon: legacy infrastructure, private equity backing

SK Horizon is scheduled to be spun off from SK Broadband in February 2027 through a corporate split. It will operate data centres, content delivery networks, and submarine cable assets, with a total capacity of 318MW—including a 100MW AIDC under construction in Ulsan and a 75MW facility in Guro.

Shortly after the spin-off, in March 2027, SK Telecom plans to sell a 37% stake in Horizon to private equity firms KKR and IMM for ₩1.88 trillion. Horizon will separately issue ₩1.2 trillion in new shares to the same investors, bringing the final ownership structure to SK Telecom 51%, KKR 29%, and IMM 20%.

Combined, the two transactions will bring in ₩3.1 trillion from the financial investors. Daishin expects a significant portion of these proceeds to fund Horizon's AIDC expansion, with some potentially recycled into SK Hyper's own investment programme. Horizon's enterprise value has been estimated at approximately ₩5 trillion—a notable figure given that the assets being carved out represent only 16% of SK Broadband's net assets, a premium that reflects market enthusiasm for AIDC growth potential.

SK Hyper: long-range ambitions, modest initial capital

SK Hyper, the vehicle intended to lead SK Telecom's medium-to-long-term AIDC ambitions, will be launched with paid-in capital of ₩750 billion. Its blueprint is ambitious: a phased rollout reaching 5 gigawatts of capacity from 2029, with cumulative capacity of 15GW by 2035. For near-term modelling purposes, Daishin assumes 2GW of operational capacity by around 2030–31.

At 2GW, Daishin projects SK Telecom's total DC revenues at ₩1.4 trillion–₩2.3 trillion and operating profit at ₩240 billion–₩430 billion. That would represent up to a fivefold increase from the ₩390 billion in DC revenues expected for 2025, and could contribute 8–13% of group revenues and 11–20% of group operating profit.

There is an important caveat, however. SK Hyper's ₩750 billion in starting capital amounts to just 2.5% of the estimated ₩30 trillion construction cost (excluding GPUs) for a 2GW facility. In practice, the entity functions more as an early-stage developer—securing land and power infrastructure, attracting anchor customers, and defining the business model—rather than as the dominant financial backer. SK Telecom's effective equity stake in AIDC projects could rise above 10% by 2030–31 as revenues materialise and further investment is made, but the precise mechanics of profit recognition—whether through proportional equity earnings, fee income, or dividends—have yet to be finalised. The scale of returns is also likely to be limited in the near term, and investors should weigh this carefully.

Earnings outlook: a sharp trough, then a strong recovery

SK Telecom's consolidated operating profit is projected to fall 41% in 2025 to ₩1.073 trillion, down from ₩1.823 trillion the previous year, as costs related to a SIM-card hacking incident and weaker subsidiary performance weigh heavily. Daishin anticipates a sharp rebound in 2026, with operating profit nearly doubling to ₩2.119 trillion—a 97% year-on-year increase.

Subsidiary SK Broadband is also expected to benefit, with its 2026 operating profit forecast to surge 76% to ₩510 billion. SK Broadband had posted a 21% compound annual growth rate in operating profit between 2020 and 2024.

On the core wireless business, SK Telecom's average revenue per user (ARPU) for the second quarter of 2026 is estimated at ₩29,100, up 0.1% year on year—a modestly positive result compared with KT, whose ARPU declined 0.6% over the same period. Marketing expenditure and depreciation costs are also running below their post-5G-launch averages, supporting the case for margin improvement.

Shareholder returns and competitive context

Daishin forecasts total shareholder returns of ₩710 billion in 2026, representing a yield of 3.6%. The dividend per share is expected to recover to ₩3,320, double the ₩1,660 paid in 2025, though still short of the ₩3,500 levels seen in 2023–24.

One note of caution on SK Telecom's AIDC positioning: among South Korea's three major telecoms operators, it is growing its data centre business at the slowest pace. Daishin's forecasts put SK Telecom's DC revenue compound annual growth rate at 13.6% between 2026 and 2030, well behind KT at 23.3% and LG Uplus at 24.8%. The company's deliberately conservative, low-risk approach to AIDC investment may prove prudent over the long run, but in the near term it means ceding ground to more aggressive rivals—a trade-off that investors would do well to factor into their assessment.