DS Investment Securities: "Second-Half Memory Rally to Re-accelerate, Led by HBM Price Surge"

Second-Half Memory Rally to Re-accelerate, Led by HBM Price Surge

DS Investment Securities published a semiconductor industry report on the 17th, forecasting that the second-half memory market rally will re-accelerate, centred on rising prices for HBM (High Bandwidth Memory).

Production Strategy Pivoting to HBM Profitability

According to the report, memory manufacturers' production decisions are now being made on the basis of HBM profitability rather than commodity DRAM margins. The share of wafer inputs allocated to HBM is projected to rise to 22% in 2026 and 30% in 2027.

As a result, the combined Non-HBM capacity growth rate for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix is estimated to reach only +8% in 2026, +12% in 2027, and +3% in 2028. The report identifies a self-reinforcing cycle: the more firmly HBM prices hold up, the more constrained conventional DRAM supply becomes.

Demand-Side Growth Drivers Confirmed

Demand-side catalysts are also firmly in place. Per-ASIC HBM capacity is set to expand from the current 96–192 GB to 216–288 GB in 2026, while NVIDIA's Rubin Ultra platform is scheduled to increase per-GPU HBM capacity to 384 GB or more in 2027. Demand for LPDRAM (low-power DRAM) in AI servers is also surging, acting as an upward price driver for mobile DRAM even as smartphone shipments decline.

Memory as the Strategic Core of Rack-Scale Computing

The report also highlights the growing strategic importance of memory in the transition to rack-scale computing. Total memory capacity in the NVIDIA Blackwell NVL72 stands at 31.1 TB, expanding to 74.7 TB in the Vera Rubin NVL72 and further to 432 TB in the Rubin Ultra NVL576. "The key driver of rack-level performance improvement is shifting away from GPUs and towards memory systems," the report states.

Earnings Forecasts and Target Price Upgrades

DS Investment Securities projects Samsung Electronics' 2026 operating profit at 37.5 trillion won (operating profit margin: 52%) and SK Hynix's at 26.4 trillion won (OPM: 77%). The firm raised its target price for Samsung Electronics to 530,000 won, maintaining it as the top pick within the sector, and lifted its target price for SK Hynix to 3,100,000 won.

Equipment and Components Sector Also Favoured

The brokerage maintains a positive outlook on semiconductor equipment and components. It expects HBM back-end process investment to commence in the second half of 2026, with new equipment order momentum for Samsung's Pyeongtaek P5 facility and the Yongin semiconductor cluster set to gather pace in earnest from 2027.