Memory chip prices set to beat market expectations in the second half

Hanwha Investment & Securities published a semiconductor industry report on the 25th, predicting that DRAM and NAND memory prices in the third quarter will exceed market expectations by a substantial margin.

The brokerage's research centre forecasts that DRAM prices will rise 15–25% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter, while NAND prices will climb 20–25%. Both figures dwarf the estimates published by TrendForce, the industry research firm, in March, which had pencilled in DRAM growth of 3–8% and NAND growth of 8–13% on the same basis.

The supply picture supports this bullish view. The DRAM supply sufficiency ratio — a measure of how well supply meets demand — is expected to remain in negative territory, improving only marginally from -2.55% in the second quarter to -2.17% in the third. For NAND, bit shipment growth is forecast to remain in the low single digits on a quarterly basis, leaving supply expansion decidedly constrained.

The report identifies three reasons why the shortage is unlikely to ease quickly. First, inventories at suppliers have already fallen to near-record lows. Second, new fabrication facilities under construction — Samsung's P4L plant and SK Hynix's M15X — are being dedicated to high-bandwidth memory (HBM), the advanced chip type used in artificial intelligence applications, rather than to conventional commodity memory. Third, the next generation of capacity aimed at mainstream memory — Samsung's P5 and SK Hynix's Y1 fabs — is not expected to ramp up in earnest until the first half of 2028.

The HBM market, meanwhile, is seen entering a fresh pricing upcycle from next year. Negotiations over 2026 HBM contract prices are already under way, and volume shipments of HBM4, the latest generation of the product, are scheduled to begin in the third quarter of this year. Hanwha sees 2026 as the year of a sharp price surge in commodity memory, with HBM then taking the baton and driving industry conditions through 2027.

Even once new supply comes on stream after 2028, the report argues that the kind of savage margin compression seen in previous downturns is unlikely to recur. Long-term supply agreements with major artificial intelligence and server customers are expected to put a floor under prices, providing chipmakers with a structural buffer against any future slump.