Mirae Asset Securities reaffirmed its "buy" rating and target price of KRW 550,000 on Samsung Electronics (KRX: 005930) on the 25th, implying an upside of 61.5% from the stock's closing price of KRW 340,500 on 24th June.
The brokerage projects Samsung's 2026 operating profit at KRW 83 trillion on an annual revenue basis of KRW 382.0495 trillion, comfortably ahead of the market consensus of KRW 365.0636 trillion.
Mirae Asset trimmed its second-quarter and full-year 2026 operating profit estimates by 14% and 3% respectively, after accounting for a bonus provision accrual. The total estimated scale of the bonus provision has been revised upwards to KRW 3.5 trillion.
Rising memory chip prices are identified as the central driver of earnings improvement. According to contract price forecasts from TrendForce, a market research firm, contract prices are expected to increase in the third and fourth quarters of 2026 — DDR5 by 10% and 14%, and DDR4 by 15% and 16%, respectively. Following average selling price (ASP) gains of around 50% in the second quarter of 2026, further ASP increases exceeding 20% appear achievable in the third quarter.
On the supply side, Samsung is assessed to be well-positioned to run both its DRAM and NAND flash operations at maximum capacity. Projected DRAM and NAND wafer capacity for 2027 stands at an average of 790,000 and 403,000 wafers per month, respectively. Samsung's capacity share within the industry is forecast to expand to 33.2% for DRAM and 27.5% for NAND, up from current levels.
With regard to shareholder returns in 2026, Mirae Asset estimates that if Samsung distributes 50% of free cash flow to shareholders, ordinary shareholders could receive a dividend yield of between 3.6% and 6.0%, while preferred shareholders could see yields of 6.0% to 9.6%. Special dividends are estimated at between KRW 6.7 trillion and KRW 12.5 trillion.