Daishin Securities reaffirmed its Buy rating and six-month price target of 3.2m won on SK Hynix (KOSPI: 000660) on 28th September 2026, arguing that the current share price of 1.862m won (as of 23rd September) fails to reflect the underlying strength of the memory-chip market.

In a research note, analyst Ryu Hyung-geun addressed two risks weighing on investor sentiment: reported quality issues with HBM4 chips destined for a key customer, and wariness over SK Hynix's planned Solidigm IPO and overseas factory investments. He concluded that neither concern rises to the level of a fundamental threat.

HBM4 set to take centre stage

Daishin expects SK Hynix to begin shipping HBM4 — the latest generation of high-bandwidth memory used in AI accelerators — in earnest during the third quarter of 2026. The firm forecasts HBM4 will account for 40% of total shipments by that quarter, rising to the mid-50% range on an annual basis by 2027. While acknowledging the possibility of some quality issues at the packaging stage, the analyst drew a firm line: "This is not an insurmountable risk, and we are nowhere near the stage of discussing compensation payments."

On the question of overseas factory investment, Daishin takes the long view. Even if a US manufacturing facility goes ahead, meaningful production is unlikely before 2028 — and in the meantime, the plant would help buffer SK Hynix against American tariff risks. The report noted that "the resolution of uncertainty has historically been a strong entry point for semiconductor stocks in the middle of an upcycle."

Projections point to explosive growth

Daishin's financial forecasts for SK Hynix are striking. The firm projects full-year 2026 revenue of 345.93tn won and operating profit of 270.31tn won, implying an operating margin of 78.1%. Compared with 2025 estimates — revenue of 97.15tn won and operating profit of 47.21tn won (a 48.6% margin) — that represents year-on-year increases of 256% and 473% respectively.

The engine of this profit surge is a near-vertical rise in DRAM average selling prices (ASP). Daishin estimates that DRAM ASP per gigabyte will climb from $0.57 in 2025 to $1.58 in 2026 — a gain of 177% — before reaching $2.06 in 2027. Shipment volumes are also expected to grow steadily, from 92.9bn gigabits in 2025 to 117.1bn in 2026 and 146.4bn in 2027.

Reasons for caution

These projections represent the view of a single brokerage and warrant scrutiny. SK Hynix's current share price, while more than four times the 52-week low of 336,500 won, sits roughly 36% below the 52-week high of 2.919m won reached in March. The stock has fallen 27.1% over the past three months, reflecting a sharp near-term correction.

The HBM4 quality question is the most consequential variable to watch. Should supply to critical customers — Nvidia foremost among them — be disrupted, SK Hynix's premium-pricing strategy could come under pressure. Daishin dismisses the issue as short-term noise, but some market observers note that rivals are rapidly expanding their own HBM4 capabilities and question whether SK Hynix can defend its market share.

Balance sheet turns to cash-rich

On the financial health front, the signals are unambiguously positive. Net debt stood at 24.96tn won in 2023 before swinging into net-cash territory by end-2025, at -5.58tn won. By 2026, Daishin estimates SK Hynix will hold net cash of 166.22tn won. The debt-to-equity ratio is forecast to fall from 87.5% in 2023 to just 21.9% in 2026. Against this backdrop, investors will be watching closely for any announcements on shareholder returns when third-quarter 2026 results are published.

Valuation

Daishin's 3.2m won target implies upside of roughly 72% from the current price. On a price-to-earnings basis, the stock trades at 7.3 times projected 2026 earnings and 6.1 times 2027 earnings — modest multiples by historical standards for a memory-cycle peak, in the broker's view. Critics counter, however, that if the 2026 profit estimates prove too optimistic, much of that apparent valuation appeal would evaporate.