In a research report published on 2 October 2026, Kiwoom Securities forecast that Samsung E&A (KOSPI: 028050) would post third-quarter operating profit of 276 billion won, up 56.3% year on year and ahead of the market consensus of 248.1 billion won. The brokerage maintained its "Buy" rating and target price of 73,000 won per share.
Kiwoom acknowledged that won appreciation poses some headwind, but argued that construction progress remains on track and that margins should hold up well. Any drag on operating profit from currency movements is expected to be offset by gains from forward foreign-exchange hedging booked below the operating line.
A Saudi mega-contract changes the picture
The defining variable for the third quarter is Samsung E&A's award of the SAN7 project in Saudi Arabia, worth approximately 4.7 trillion won. With that contract confirmed during the quarter, Kiwoom now expects the company's full-year order guidance to be revised up to at least 16 trillion won. Samsung E&A had already raised its intra-group order guidance from 3 trillion won to 7 trillion won at its previous earnings briefing.
Fourth quarter: semiconductor construction takes centre stage
The fourth quarter is expected to see a concentration of advanced-industry orders from Samsung Electronics. Kiwoom cited the accelerated production ramp-up of Pyeongtaek P5 Phase 1, the planned groundbreaking of Pyeongtaek P6 within the year, and the possible start of construction at the Taylor Fab 2 facility in Texas as supporting evidence. A construction contract for Samsung Electro-Mechanics' Sejong plant is also considered likely before year-end. Headline order figures for the third quarter may come in somewhat below expectations owing to timing differences in when formal contracts are signed, but Kiwoom believes the bulk of these deals will be formalised in the fourth quarter, making the 7-trillion-won intra-group order target achievable within the year.
A sharper recovery from 2026 onwards
The medium-term outlook is more compelling still. In the chemicals engineering segment, revenue from the Fadhili gas plant is expected to peak between the second half of 2026 and the first half of 2027. Orders secured this year — including a Middle East letter of award worth 3.2 trillion won and the SAN7 contract — will also begin contributing to revenue growth. Kiwoom estimates that by 2027, Samsung E&A could achieve revenues of more than 13 trillion won, representing growth of 24% year on year, with an operating margin exceeding 10%.
If these projections prove correct, Samsung E&A's earnings trajectory would trace a clear V-shaped recovery. In 2025, revenue and operating profit fell to 9.029 trillion won and 792 billion won respectively, both below the 2024 figures of 9.967 trillion won in revenue and 972 billion won in operating profit. Kiwoom forecasts a rebound in 2026, with revenue of 10.78 trillion won and operating profit of 1.0415 trillion won, followed by further expansion in 2027 to revenue of 13.3684 trillion won and operating profit of 1.3553 trillion won. The operating margin is projected to improve from 8.8% in 2025 to 10.1% in 2027.
A well-stocked order pipeline
The medium-to-long-term growth story is reinforced by a sizeable pipeline of prospective contracts. These include a urea fertiliser plant in Qatar ($2.5bn), the Mexinol green methanol project in Mexico ($2bn), the Abadi LNG EPC project in Indonesia ($3bn), and the DG Fuels sustainable aviation fuel project in the United States ($3bn). Should these progress smoothly to contract award — most expected around 2027 — they could provide an additional boost to Samsung E&A's already accelerating growth.
On shareholder returns, Samsung E&A is due to announce a new capital-return policy from 2027, with potential increases in dividends representing an additional investment attraction.
Risks to watch
Investors should weigh several risks. The current share price of 47,350 won (as of 1 October) sits 35% below Kiwoom's target price, and is already 26.5% off its 52-week high of 64,400 won. A sustained appreciation of the won would inevitably weigh on results, given that a substantial portion of Samsung E&A's revenue is denominated in dollars; forward-hedging can only partially cushion the blow if currency swings prove severe.
Any shift in Samsung Electronics' semiconductor investment plans also bears watching. Samsung E&A's advanced-industry revenue growth depends heavily on construction orders from its parent company (Samsung E&A is part of the Samsung group of companies, or chaebol), so changes to the timing or scale of those investments could jeopardise order guidance. Geopolitical instability in the Middle East remains a persistent operational risk for the chemicals engineering division.
Kiwoom Securities analyst Shin Dae-hyun, who covers the construction sector, maintains a "Buy" rating on Samsung E&A with a target price of 73,000 won — implying upside of approximately 54% from the current share price. As of 1 October, Samsung E&A's market capitalisation stood at 9.2806 trillion won, with foreign investors holding a 37.8% stake.