Hana Securities Holds Price Target on POSCO International at 105,000 Won, Citing Energy Growth

Hana Securities reaffirmed its "Buy" rating and price target of 105,000 won on POSCO International (KOSPI: 047050) on 1st October 2026. At the time of the note, the shares were trading at 56,900 won, implying upside of approximately 84.5% to the target.

Third-quarter earnings expected to rise sharply

Hana Securities forecasts POSCO International's operating profit for the third quarter of 2026 (July–September) at 395.8bn won, up 25.3% year on year. Revenue is expected to reach 8.261tn won over the same period, a modest 0.2% increase. Both figures are broadly in line with market consensus.

Energy leads the way

The standout performer is the energy division. The Myanmar gas field is expected to see revenues expand as the full effect of previously elevated oil prices feeds through to selling prices. Australia's Senex gas field is set to benefit from a concentration of production growth in the second half of the year, generating meaningful operating leverage. Meanwhile, the power generation business is positioned to grow as the System Marginal Price (SMP) — the benchmark electricity price in South Korea's power market — rises.

The materials division faces headwinds, however. Euro weakness against the dollar is expected to compress margins at the company's European steel-trading subsidiaries, and its materials and bio segment is similarly exposed to currency movements. On a brighter note, the palm oil business is expected to post meaningful profit growth, boosted by the consolidation of a newly acquired entity and the tailwind of a seasonal peak period.

A compelling earnings trajectory

POSCO International's energy-led momentum is visible in its multi-year earnings trend. Operating profit came in at 1.158tn won in 2024 and edged up to 1.165tn won in 2025. Hana Securities projects a more substantial jump to 1.475tn won in 2026 — a 26.6% year-on-year increase — followed by a further rise to 1.646tn won in 2027.

Valuation metrics reflect this improving earnings profile. The price-to-earnings ratio on 2026 estimates stands at 10.45 times, down from 13.56 times in 2024 and 14.21 times in 2025, as earnings per share roughly double from 2,925 won in 2024 to a projected 5,444 won in 2026. The price-to-book ratio stands at 1.39 times.

Diversifying the energy asset base

Beyond near-term results, portfolio construction merits attention. Following a recent acquisition of a North American shale gas asset, Hana Securities anticipates further upstream investment by POSCO International in both North America and South-East Asia. Should the company secure operatorship of South-East Asian assets, analysts expect its LNG trading capabilities to strengthen considerably. A fourth phase of investment in the Myanmar gas field is also under way.

Risks to monitor

Investors should weigh several risk factors. The Myanmar gas field, which accounts for a significant share of group revenue, carries persistent geopolitical risk. Political and social instability in Myanmar has continued since the military coup of 2021, making it difficult to discount operational disruptions entirely. The North American shale assets offer greater geopolitical stability and portfolio diversification, but they remain at an early stage; ramping up third-party sales volumes will take time.

Oil price volatility is a further key variable. POSCO International's earnings have historically tracked crude prices closely. Rising oil prices boost energy-division profitability, but can simultaneously stoke inflationary pressures that weigh on the broader trading environment. Hana Securities flags that the onset of winter represents a period of heightened risk for energy commodity prices.

Currency movements cut both ways. Dollar strength flatters the translation of energy-division dollar revenues into won, but weighs on margins at the company's European materials subsidiaries, where euro weakness erodes profitability.

Ownership and market data

POSCO Holdings and related parties hold a combined 50.01% stake in POSCO International; the National Pension Service of Korea holds 7.05%. Market capitalisation stands at 10.01tn won, with foreign investors accounting for 6.19% of shares outstanding.

Hana Securities' current price target of 105,000 won was set on 4th May and maintained at this latest review. The preceding target of 90,000 won had been issued on 17th March 2026. At 56,900 won — well below the 52-week high of 87,300 won — the shares trade at a considerable discount to both the target and recent peaks.