In a preview report published on 13th October 2026, SK Securities estimated that HYBE (ticker: 352820) would generate revenue of ₩1.5076trn in the third quarter of 2026, a year-on-year increase of 107.3%.
Analyst Park Jun-hyung projected operating profit for the same period at ₩167.4bn, implying an operating margin of 11.1%. That would represent a sharp turnaround from an operating loss of ₩42.2bn in the prior-year quarter. Both figures are broadly in line with market consensus, which stands at ₩1.4460trn in revenue and ₩165.0bn in operating profit.
Concerts drive the headline numbers
Live performances are the engine of HYBE's top-line growth. With 24 BTS world-tour dates alongside tours by several other artists concentrated in the third quarter, concert revenue is estimated at ₩740.2bn — a record high and a 14.3% increase on the preceding quarter's ₩647.7bn. Compared with ₩245.0bn in the third quarter of 2025, concert revenue will have more than tripled in a year.
Notably, SK Securities argues that cost pressures from the concert ramp-up will be contained. Newer artists — those in the early years of their careers — are subject to lower initial revenue-sharing rates with HYBE. The numbers bear this out: Kortiz, who debuted in 2025, shifted 1.81m album copies in the third quarter despite being in an inactive period, while EVAN, who debuted in 2026, sold 490,000 copies. As younger intellectual-property (IP) acts account for a larger share of total sales, the argument runs, HYBE's profit structure should improve accordingly.
Album sales hold firm
In the recordings segment, ENHYPEN's eighth mini-album sold 2.29m copies and &TEAM's second Korean mini-album sold 1.39m, contributing to a total of 9.15m copies across the quarter and an estimated ₩183.0bn in revenue. Kortiz's "GreenGreen" has now surpassed cumulative sales of 4.8m copies. Merchandise and licensing revenue is estimated at ₩354.3bn, lifted by the expanded concert audience.
Estimates trimmed; shares deeply depressed
The third-quarter forecasts are nonetheless 5.3% below SK Securities' prior revenue estimate of ₩1.5930trn and 13.3% below its earlier operating-profit estimate of ₩193.0bn, reflecting higher concert-related costs and some rescheduling of artist activities.
HYBE's share price closed at ₩156,500 on 12th October, some 61.3% below its 52-week high of ₩404,500 — a decline that has significantly outpaced any improvement in underlying earnings. SK Securities maintains a Buy rating and a target price of ₩290,000, implying upside of 85.3% from current levels. Investors should, however, note that the broker has cut its target price three times this year alone: from ₩480,000 in March 2026 to ₩400,000 in April, then to ₩350,000 in July, before settling at ₩290,000 in September. The frequency of those reductions warrants independent scepticism about the target's achievability.
Full-year and medium-term outlook
For the full year 2026, SK Securities projects revenue of ₩4.8625trn, up 83.5% from ₩2.6499trn in 2025. Operating profit is forecast at ₩284.5bn (margin: 5.9%), more than five times the ₩49.9bn recorded in 2025. The margin remains thin largely because of ₩495.3bn in selling, general and administrative expenses concentrated in the first quarter; the extent to which those costs become more evenly spread across quarters will be a key variable for the annual margin.
Looking further ahead, 2027 poses a fresh challenge. Revenue is projected to fall 13.5% to ₩4.2083trn as the post-BTS-comeback touring lull takes effect. Two locally developed acts — described as a North American boy group and Saint Satine — are due to debut in North America in 2027, as HYBE's strategy of building market-specific IP becomes tangible. Whether these acts, together with the younger-generation Korean roster, can fill the gap left by BTS's touring absence is the central question for investors assessing HYBE's medium-term trajectory.
Seventeen, meanwhile, remains on a contract-renewal status in 2026; a full group comeback is not expected before 2028. BTS activity beyond the current tour cycle is similarly uncertain. The degree to which HYBE's diversified IP portfolio can smooth these peaks and troughs will ultimately determine whether the company's earnings recovery lives up to its billing.