In a research report published on the 12th, Kiwoom Securities projected that Samsung Electronics' operating profit would reach 116 trillion won in the fourth quarter of 2026, with revenue rising to 203 trillion won — a 4% increase quarter-on-quarter.
Park Yu-ak, the brokerage's semiconductor analyst, noted that Samsung's third-quarter operating profit of 107 trillion won came in line with his firm's expectations. Third-quarter revenue reached 195 trillion won, up 14% from the previous quarter.
By division, the DS (semiconductor) segment posted third-quarter operating profit of 107.6 trillion won, a 21% quarter-on-quarter increase. Samsung Display (SDC) contributed 1.1 trillion won, up 52%. The MX/NW (mobile and network) division, however, recorded an operating loss of 1.4 trillion won, while the VD/DA (consumer electronics and home appliances) segment remained in the red with a 400 billion won loss.
For the fourth quarter, Kiwoom expects the pace of memory chip price increases to moderate. DRAM prices are forecast to rise by 11% quarter-on-quarter, and NAND by 15% — a deceleration from recent trends. The foundry and system semiconductor (S.LSI) divisions are expected to remain loss-making. The DX division faces widening losses as rising memory prices squeeze component costs, while SDC is forecast to post modest growth on the back of seasonal demand from key customers.
Kiwoom's divisional operating profit forecasts for the fourth quarter are as follows: DS at 117.1 trillion won, SDC at 1.2 trillion won, MX/NW at -1.9 trillion won, and VD/DA at -600 billion won.
On a full-year basis for 2026, the brokerage projects Samsung's revenue at 703 trillion won and operating profit at 370 trillion won. That would represent a 749% surge from the 43.6 trillion won earned in 2025, and implies a more than tenfold increase compared with the 32.7 trillion won posted in 2024 — a remarkable earnings expansion achieved in just three years.
The engine behind this forecast is the DS division's memory business. DS operating profit, which totalled just 24.9 trillion won in 2025, is projected to explode to 367.5 trillion won in 2026. The recovery in NAND flash is particularly striking: the segment's operating margin is expected to swing from 7% in 2025 to 70% in 2026. DRAM margins are also forecast to improve sharply, rising from 41% to 79% over the same period.
Yet the outlook is not without meaningful risks. The foundry and S.LSI divisions are expected to sustain operating losses of 6.8 trillion won in 2026. More structurally significant is the projected reversal in the DX segment — which encompasses mobile and network businesses — from a profit of 13 trillion won in 2025 to a loss of 1.2 trillion won in 2026. Intensifying competition in smartphones, compounded by rising memory input costs, is driving this deterioration.
Kiwoom argues that the near-term catalyst for Samsung's share price is shifting — from earnings upgrade momentum to the direction and scale of shareholder returns. Over the medium to longer term, the analysts identify Samsung's ability to gain market share in HBM4 (the next generation of high-bandwidth memory) and to push through price increases as the critical variables for a re-rating of the stock. Samsung Electronics remains the brokerage's top pick in the semiconductor sector.
Samsung's 2026 earnings per share is forecast at 43,815 won, a 567% jump from the 6,564 won expected in 2025. On a price-to-earnings basis, the stock now trades at just 6.1 times 2026 estimates, against 18.3 times for 2025 — a compression that underscores the market's scepticism about whether such a dramatic profit recovery will materialise. A projected dividend yield of 5.8% for 2026, up sharply from 1.4% in 2025, adds to expectations of enhanced shareholder returns.
Investors should nonetheless treat these projections with appropriate caution. They reflect the view of a single brokerage, and a global economic slowdown or an unexpected shift in semiconductor supply and demand dynamics could prompt significant downward revisions.